On March 6, 2026, in an exclusive interview with Nicolas Tavitian for “Crossroads- Belgahay”, Dr Marat Terterov, Founder and Director of the Brussels Energy Club, and Co-founder of the European Geopolitical Forum, and Dr. George Vlad Niculescu, Head of Research of the European Geopolitical Forum shared their insights on the potential security challenges for the South Caucasus stemming from the ongoing war between Iran, the United States, and Israel. The conversation explored how escalating tensions in the Middle East could affect regional stability, energy corridors, geopolitical alliances, and the security landscape surrounding Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia. While cooperation with the EU might be helpful to preventing and mitigating likely collateral damages from the war -such as massive refugees flows or disruptions to regional trade and energy corridors- neither the EU nor the Caucasian countries would have a major role to play in shaping the military operations and the outcomes of this war. The speakers recommended that the three Caucasian states should practice geopolitical hedging, military restraint, and support de-escalation as wise and prudent policy steps to avoiding the spillover of war into their region.

By Vasif HUSEYNOV, PhD, Head of Department, AIR Center, Adjunct Lecturer, ADA and Khazar Universities, Baku

The South Caucasus managed the geopolitical rivalries surrounding it remarkably well in 2025. Despite intensifying global competition and conflicts raging beyond its borders, the region avoided major military escalation and even made notable progress toward stability. For the first time in more than three decades, there were no deadly interstate clashes among the three South Caucasus countries. Instead, pragmatic diplomacy, economic connectivity projects, and cautious foreign policies helped prevent regional tensions from spiralling into violence. Yet only a few months later, this fragile stability is now under serious strain as the region finds itself geographically caught between two most dangerous conflicts in the world. READ MORE

By Fuad SHAHBAZOV, Baku-based independent regional security and defence analyst

On March 5, 2026, two drones launched by Iran struck Azerbaijan’s Nakhchivan exclave, damaging Nakhchivan International Airport and a nearby school building while injuring several bystanders. The South Caucasus, particularly Azerbaijan and Iran’s border regions, have recently experienced unprecedented escalation following the U.S.-Israeli military operation against Iran, dubbed “Operation Epic Fury.” Although Azerbaijan has remained neutral since the war’s onset, Baku has voiced growing concerns about the conflict’s potential repercussions for the wider region. Despite its formal neutrality, Baku’s long-standing partnership with Tel Aviv and its Charter on Strategic Partnership with Washington have complicated its diplomatic manoeuvring, particularly amid frequent criticism from Iran and Turkey. READ MORE

By Vusal GULIYEV, Leading Advisor at the Baku-based Center of Analysis of International Relations (AIR Center)

On February 10, railway officials from Azerbaijan, Georgia, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan convened in Ashgabat to strengthen cooperation and accelerate the development of the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route, commonly known as the Middle Corridor. Development of the Middle Corridor continues to gain momentum as Eurasian states seek faster, more geopolitically resilient trade routes linking Asia and Europe. The southern branch of the corridor stretches from the People’s Republic of China (PRC) through Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan to the Caspian Sea, and onward via Azerbaijan and Georgia to Türkiye and European markets. This section has emerged as an increasingly important segment of the network. As regional connectivity initiatives accelerate, the southern branch is gradually becoming a key component of the evolving Eurasian transport architecture READ MORE

By Yeghia TASHJIAN, Beirut-based regional analyst and researcher, columnist, "The Armenian Weekly”

China’s position on the TRIPP (Trump’s Route for International Peace and Prosperity) has been cautious and low-profile, shaped less by enthusiasm for the project itself than by Beijing’s overall policy toward the South Caucasus and the region’s geopolitical rivalries. From China’s perspective, TRIPP is not mutually exclusive with the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). From the U.S. perspective, however, the project carries geopolitical weight, aimed at containing or counterbalancing Russian, Iranian and Chinese influence in Eurasia.
China has evaluated TRIPP primarily through the lens of risk management, given that the route traverses border regions historically vulnerable to conflict and border tensions and lies at the intersection of regional rivalries. This helps explain why Beijing has avoided any public endorsement, opting instead for rhetorical neutrality and a wait-and-see approach — signalling that economic connectivity must be inclusive, territorial integrity respected, trade depoliticized and cooperation insulated from zero-sum geopolitical competition. READ MORE

By Benyamin POGHOSYAN, PhD, Senior Research Fellow at the APRI Armenia

Armenia’s pivotal 2026 looms: a year that will test fragile peace efforts with Azerbaijan and Turkey, redefine Yerevan’s ties with the EU and Russia, and unfold amid deepening political and societal polarization.
The year 2026 could be crucial for Armenia, significantly influencing both the foreign and domestic policy trajectory of the country. Externally, the main developments to monitor are the Armenia–Azerbaijan and Armenia–Turkey normalization processes. Will the August 2025 Washington Declaration bring the restoration of all regional communications – including the opening of the Armenia-Turkey border and the signature of an Armenia-Azerbaijan peace agreement – or will it meet the fate of previous, unsuccessful attempts to establish lasting peace and security in the South Caucasus? READ MORE

By Benyamin POGHOSYAN, PhD, Senior Research Fellow at the APRI Armenia
Lara SETRAKIAN, President, APRI Armenia

Political scientists and wider civil society from Armenia and Azerbaijan don’t often see eye to eye. After decades of war between the two countries their grievances run deep, with each side blaming the other for continued rounds of conflict. But experts in Yerevan and Baku can now agree on one thing: the meeting held in Abu Dhabi on July 10 between their heads of government was a moment of respite for the South Caucasus. After months without a major meeting between the two sides (the leaders met briefly at the margins of the European Political Community summit in Tirana in May), Abu Dhabi was able to host their most comprehensive gathering in known history, attended by representatives who cover all key aspects of the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace process. Still, expectations should be managed. The two sides may yet be very far from signing a peace agreement, though a draft was announced earlier this year. There are thorny issues, like border demarcation, that remain unresolved. And there are competing visions for how the future of transport links should evolve. Nonetheless, the Abu Dhabi meeting has revived the diplomatic track, giving new hope for peace and stability, while calming fears of an imminent outbreak of war. READ MORE

Gayrat Khonnazarov, Editor-in-Chief, UzA news agency

The Republic of Uzbekistan has demonstrated significant success in the international arena, strengthening its active participation in the United Nations (UN) and its specialized agencies. In 2024, the country achieved a number of key milestones that underline its commitment to universal principles and standards in the areas of human rights, socio-economic development, labor, and global cooperation. READ MORE