On March 6, 2026, in an exclusive interview with Nicolas Tavitian for “Crossroads- Belgahay”, Dr Marat Terterov, Founder and Director of the Brussels Energy Club, and Co-founder of the European Geopolitical Forum, and Dr. George Vlad Niculescu, Head of Research of the European Geopolitical Forum shared their insights on the potential security challenges for the South Caucasus stemming from the ongoing war between Iran, the United States, and Israel. The conversation explored how escalating tensions in the Middle East could affect regional stability, energy corridors, geopolitical alliances, and the security landscape surrounding Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia. While cooperation with the EU might be helpful to preventing and mitigating likely collateral damages from the war -such as massive refugees flows or disruptions to regional trade and energy corridors- neither the EU nor the Caucasian countries would have a major role to play in shaping the military operations and the outcomes of this war. The speakers recommended that the three Caucasian states should practice geopolitical hedging, military restraint, and support de-escalation as wise and prudent policy steps to avoiding the spillover of war into their region.

Dr. Marat TERTEROV interviewed by Civilnet.am

Brussels-based perceptions of Armenia and the country’s actual energy and geopolitical realities are often detached from the facts on the ground. According to Brussels Energy Club director Marat Terterov, the EU tends to act as a passive facilitator rather than a decisive investor, effectively “missing the bus” compared to more assertive actors such as the U.S., Russia, and China. He also stressed that key decisions in the energy sector, particularly around nuclear, are inherently political and tied to competition between major powers, not purely economic calculations. Overall, the discussion highlights the need for more pragmatic, reality-based European approaches, while calling for deeper regional energy integration in the South Caucasus. READ MORE (in Armenian)

By Vasif HUSEYNOV, PhD, Head of Department, AIR Center, Adjunct Lecturer, ADA and Khazar Universities, Baku

On March 11, European Council President António Costa held talks in Baku with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev. The visit came at a time of heightened geopolitical uncertainty across Europe’s eastern neighbourhood amid Russia’s war against Ukraine and the Middle East, underscoring the growing importance of EU–Azerbaijan relations. The leaders used the occasion to reaffirm their commitment to strengthening cooperation across a broad agenda ranging from energy and connectivity to security and economic development. The two presidents issued a joint press statement following the meeting, emphasizing “the strategic importance of the Azerbaijan–EU partnership” and expressing their determination to deepen political dialogue and practical cooperation. Both sides aim to build on the “positive momentum of recent high-level meetings” and expand cooperation in areas such as security, energy, and transport. The document stressed that the partnership contributes to “peace, stability, connectivity and sustainable development in the wider Black Sea, South Caucasus and Central Asia regions”. READ MORE

By Aytaс MAHAMMADOVA, Energy Security Expert affiliated with the Caspian-Alpine Society

The geopolitical order of the Middle East experienced a major shock when the United States and Israel carried out coordinated airstrikes against Iran. The operation resulted in the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei together with several senior political and military officials. The strikes were followed by a rapid response from the remaining Iranian leadership that targeted one of the most sensitive nodes of the global economy. After the initial phase, attention quickly shifted to the Strait of Hormuz. Within days a scenario that had long existed mainly in strategic assessments began to unfold in practice as Iran moved to restrict navigation through the world’s most important maritime oil corridor, generating immediate turbulence in global energy markets and financial systems. READ MORE

By Fuad SHAHBAZOV, Baku-based independent regional security and defence analyst

On March 5, 2026, two drones launched by Iran struck Azerbaijan’s Nakhchivan exclave, damaging Nakhchivan International Airport and a nearby school building while injuring several bystanders. The South Caucasus, particularly Azerbaijan and Iran’s border regions, have recently experienced unprecedented escalation following the U.S.-Israeli military operation against Iran, dubbed “Operation Epic Fury.” Although Azerbaijan has remained neutral since the war’s onset, Baku has voiced growing concerns about the conflict’s potential repercussions for the wider region. Despite its formal neutrality, Baku’s long-standing partnership with Tel Aviv and its Charter on Strategic Partnership with Washington have complicated its diplomatic manoeuvring, particularly amid frequent criticism from Iran and Turkey. READ MORE

By Benyamin POGHOSYAN, PhD, Senior Research Fellow at the APRI Armenia
Lara SETRAKIAN, President, APRI Armenia

Political scientists and wider civil society from Armenia and Azerbaijan don’t often see eye to eye. After decades of war between the two countries their grievances run deep, with each side blaming the other for continued rounds of conflict. But experts in Yerevan and Baku can now agree on one thing: the meeting held in Abu Dhabi on July 10 between their heads of government was a moment of respite for the South Caucasus. After months without a major meeting between the two sides (the leaders met briefly at the margins of the European Political Community summit in Tirana in May), Abu Dhabi was able to host their most comprehensive gathering in known history, attended by representatives who cover all key aspects of the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace process. Still, expectations should be managed. The two sides may yet be very far from signing a peace agreement, though a draft was announced earlier this year. There are thorny issues, like border demarcation, that remain unresolved. And there are competing visions for how the future of transport links should evolve. Nonetheless, the Abu Dhabi meeting has revived the diplomatic track, giving new hope for peace and stability, while calming fears of an imminent outbreak of war. READ MORE

Gayrat Khonnazarov, Editor-in-Chief, UzA news agency

The Republic of Uzbekistan has demonstrated significant success in the international arena, strengthening its active participation in the United Nations (UN) and its specialized agencies. In 2024, the country achieved a number of key milestones that underline its commitment to universal principles and standards in the areas of human rights, socio-economic development, labor, and global cooperation. READ MORE

Bakhram Sotiboldiev,
Head of the Department of the Institute for Strategic and Regional Studies under the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan

In today's rapidly changing world, Uzbekistan confidently positions itself as one of the key players on the international stage. The country’s foreign policy, reinvigorated with the election of Shavkat Mirziyoyev as President in 2016, demonstrates impressive results, transforming the republic into a significant center for regional and global diplomacy. READ MORE